Monday, April 11, 2011

Global Megatrends That Impact Your Decisions About College

Background
Several global megatrends have building since the millennium and have converged to create a “perfect storm” of new issues to consider when making college decisions. Parents and youth need to be aware of these trends and broaden their perspectives about college education in the 21st century to make the best college choices now and for the future.

In a “Flat World” in which jobs can be easily outsourced to less expensive workers around the globe, for example, job-specific knowledge and practical skills are less valuable and will no longer guarantee employment (at least not in the US). A new “creative class” of employees is also rising around the world—employees who are more versatile and adaptive thinkers, problem-solvers, and creative idea generators. Trends like these--along with the mounting pressure to get at least a masters degree, the growing importance of working effectively in diverse multidisciplinary teams, and the fact that more and more people are increasingly changing not just jobs, but careers many times throughout their lives—are forcing us to totally rethink the purpose and value of college education.

The world is changing rapidly, the job market is shifting under our feet, and no one can tell what jobs and careers may be like in just a few years. The college choice that makes the most sense today is one that provides a nurturing environment for the development of the whole person; for building personal strengths and generalizable skills; and for producing more competent, creative, and adaptable human beings who are not just prepared for a job—they are prepared for life.

#1. The Flattening of the World (Tom Friedman). The convergence of technologies that has allowed seamless global communication, collaboration, supply chaining, and especially outsourcing is rapidly and radically redefining the job market for young people entering the workforce. Almost any task that can be broken down into components that can be outsourced to less expensive workers around the globe will be. Parents and youth underestimate degree to which this impacts current and future jobs and careers in the US. This global trend also increases the importance of remaining adaptable throughout one’s life and as Freidman puts it, “learning how to learn.” Specific job-related knowledge and practical skills rapidly become obsolete in the flattening world. Adaptability will be the most critical asset a future worker can have. Without question, this diminishes the value of certain kinds of pre-professional college programs, while raising the stock of broad liberal arts education.

#2. The Rise of the Creative Class (Richard Florida). There is an emergent economic class of knowledge workers, intellectuals, and creative professionals who are becoming more valued by society (and employers!) because they fuel economic growth as the West shifts from agriculture and industry to a knowledge-based economy. The premium is therefore shifting away from static knowledge and practical skills toward more versatile and adaptive thinkers, problem-solvers, and creative idea generators. The obvious implication is that the development of fundamental competencies such as reading, writing, speaking, being able to find and appraise information, conceptual and critical thinking, problem solving, teamwork, leadership, etc., are becoming more important than acquisition of “practical” knowledge and job skills. And this, of course, is exactly what liberal arts education has always been about.

#3. The Master’s is the New Bachelor’s. The demographic trend in the US shows that this is literally true: More adults today have a master’s degree or higher, than had a bachelor’s degree in 1961. In other words, a bachelor’s degree today is about equivalent to a high school degree a half-century ago. For many careers, a bachelor’s degree is no longer the entry level degree. A master’s degree is not only becoming required to move up the career ladder, it is increasingly required to get an interview for certain types of first-rung jobs. A very high proportion of job descriptions on websites like Monster.com, for example, include the phrase “Bachelor’s required, masters preferred” and this is increasing every year. This obviously places more importance at the undergraduate level on the development of basic competencies and permits professional specialization later at the master’s level. In other words, students have more time to develop, define, and refine their interests before specializing. The idea of a broadly based bachelor’s degree leading to professional specialization at the master’s level is new to many parents and young people.

#4. The Rise of the Multi-Career Lifestyle. Life history research indicates two important trends related to education and careers. First, 10 years after graduating, most people have jobs unrelated to their college major. Despite all of the agonizing that many college students go through in selecting a major, it is simply not true that it determines their job or career path. There are “vertically organized” fields where specific training leads to specific careers--engineering and nursing are examples—but for most people, only general competencies carry over from college to their actual work. Second, people are changing careers more frequently throughout their lives compared to just 50 years ago. It is well known that Americans change jobs an average of 8-10 times in their lives. What is less known and is accelerating is that they are changing their careers—literally doing something completely different. Like the old board game “Chutes and Ladders” people who have climbed up one career ladder often slide down to a lower position and salary to start over on another. But they are increasingly willing to do so and, in fact, their success in one career may enable them financial to start over at a lower rung on a different ladder not just once, but several times in their lives. Undoubtedly, the increase in dual income families since WWII has enabled one spouse at time to start over in a new field, while the other maintains a higher level of income. Again, the implication for college education is obvious—only general competencies carry over to new careers. Or to say another way, four years preparing for a “temporary” job is not smart. Four year building deep and broad competencies for a lifetime is.